A statistical emulator for HadCM3

Duration: 39 mins 51 secs

Share this media item:

Embed this media item:

<iframe width="_width_" height="_height_" src="https://sms.cam.ac.uk/media/1083832/embed" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Choose size:

About this item

Available Formats

About this item

Description:	Rougier, J (Bristol) Tuesday 07 December 2010, 11:00-11:40

Created:

2010-12-08 13:13

Collection:

Mathematical and Statistical Approaches to Climate Modelling and Prediction

Publisher:

Isaac Newton Institute

Rougier, J

Language:

eng (English)

Credits:

Author:	Rougier, J
Producer:	Steve Greenham


Abstract:	As part of the PalaeoQUMP project, we would like to emulate HadCM3 North American Mid-Holocene summer temperature (MTWA) anomalies, at the resolution of the simulator (3.75 by 2.5 degrees). This will allow us to calibrate the parameterisation of HadCM3 to palaeoclimate measurements at the gridcell level, and to do continental-scale reconstructions based on these measurements. Emulation has been a major theme during this programme. In the broader field of Computer Experiments its utility is clear, and its application to simulators with scalar outputs has now become standard. However, jointly emulating a large and structured collection of simulator outputs, such as a spatial field of climate quantities, is much more challenging. During this programme we have made progress on both the principles of such an emulation, notably the role of dimensional reduction and of separability, the computational aspects, and also in building an actual emulator for HadCM3. This talk will focus on the practical aspects of building an emulator, and show how our emulator can be used to learn about HadCM3, and to learn about the value of palaeoclimate measurements for parameter calibration.

Abstract:

As part of the PalaeoQUMP project, we would like to emulate HadCM3 North American Mid-Holocene summer temperature (MTWA) anomalies, at the resolution of the simulator (3.75 by 2.5 degrees). This will allow us to calibrate the parameterisation of HadCM3 to palaeoclimate measurements at the gridcell level, and to do continental-scale reconstructions based on these measurements.

Emulation has been a major theme during this programme. In the broader field of Computer Experiments its utility is clear, and its application to simulators with scalar outputs has now become standard. However, jointly emulating a large and structured collection of simulator outputs, such as a spatial field of climate quantities, is much more challenging. During this programme we have made progress on both the principles of such an emulation, notably the role of dimensional reduction and of separability, the computational aspects, and also in building an actual emulator for HadCM3.

This talk will focus on the practical aspects of building an emulator, and show how our emulator can be used to learn about HadCM3, and to learn about the value of palaeoclimate measurements for parameter calibration.

Available Formats

Format	Quality	Bitrate	Size
MPEG-4 Video	640x360	1.84 Mbits/sec	552.80 MB	View	Download
WebM	640x360	1.48 Mbits/sec	441.76 MB	View	Download
Flash Video	484x272	568.96 kbits/sec	165.99 MB	View	Download
iPod Video	480x270	506.24 kbits/sec	147.76 MB	View	Download
MP3	44100 Hz	125.01 kbits/sec	36.29 MB	Listen	Download
Auto *	(Allows browser to choose a format it supports)